| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 70° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will represent the highest air temperature observed in Philadelphia on March 10, 2026. It matters because that single-day maximum affects local energy demand, public-health planning, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions.
Philadelphia in early March sits in the mid-Atlantic transition season, so temperatures can swing widely depending on synoptic patterns—cold Canadian air, warm Gulf/Atlantic advection, or coastal systems. Short-term forecasts, the timing of frontal passages, cloud cover, and local factors such as urban heat island or lingering snow cover all shape the day’s peak temperature.
Market prices summarize traders’ collective expectations about which temperature bracket will contain the day’s maximum; they move as forecasts, observations, and model runs change. For final settlement, the market will use the official data source and resolution rules specified on the event page.
Unless the event rules state otherwise, ‘March 10, 2026’ refers to the local calendar day (midnight to 23:59 in Philadelphia local time). Confirm the precise cutoff on the KALSHI event page because the market’s resolution rules specify the official observation window.
The market’s resolution criteria on the event page will name the authoritative station or dataset used for settlement. Commonly used sources include official National Weather Service/NOAA station data or a specified ASOS/AWOS site, but you should check the event rules to see which one KALSHI will use.
Resolution follows the single authoritative source defined in the market rules; those rules also cover tie-breakers or alternative datasets if the primary source is unavailable. Review the event’s resolution text on KALSHI for exact procedures.
Final settlement is based on archived observed measurements from the official source named in the event rules, not on forecasts. Model updates can affect trading up until the market closes, but they do not change the recorded observation used to settle the market.
Historical March 10 values provide context for typical variability and help set prior expectations, but each year’s outcome hinges on that season’s synoptic setup. Combine climatology with current model guidance, short-range forecasts, and local observations to form an informed view of likely outcomes.