| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° or above | 43% | 44¢ | 48¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 19% | 14¢ | 17¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 47% | 44¢ | 47¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 80° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest officially recorded temperature in Oklahoma City will be on March 9, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-interested participants because it aggregates real-time information about expected conditions on that specific date.
Oklahoma City sits in the U.S. central plains where early March often shows large day-to-day swings between late-winter chill and early-spring warmth. Single-day extremes on a given March date are driven more by transient synoptic patterns (frontal passages, air mass advection) than by long-term trends, though climate trends influence the baseline distribution of possible outcomes.
Market odds reflect the collective judgment of participants about which temperature bucket will contain the day’s maximum as official observations come in; they update as new weather data and forecasts arrive and are not guarantees of the final reported value.
Settlement will be based on the official surface observation used by the market operator, typically the National Weather Service/NOAA observation from the primary Oklahoma City reporting station; consult the market’s settlement rules for the exact source identifier.
The outcome uses the highest recorded air temperature reported by the designated official station for the local calendar day (the maximum instantaneous or hourly surface air temperature as defined by the settlement source).
The market uses the local calendar day at the official reporting station, accounting for whether standard or daylight-saving time is in effect on that date; the settlement source’s timestamps determine which observations fall on March 9 local time.
Only the designated official reporting station specified in the market’s settlement rules will be used; nearby or auxiliary station reports are not used unless explicitly named by the market operator.
Settlements follow the market operator’s published policy regarding final and quality-controlled data from the chosen source; if the official data provider revises the observation, the market’s settlement policy dictates whether and how that revision is applied—check the operator’s rules for details.