| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 69° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 78° or above | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will match the highest temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 8, 2026. Single-day temperature outcomes matter for energy demand, local operations, and as snapshots of seasonal variability.
Oklahoma City sits on the southern Great Plains, where early March is a highly transitional month: it can feature late-winter cold intrusions or early spring warm spells depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Long-term warming trends shift baseline conditions slowly, but the realized maximum on a single day is driven primarily by the day-to-day weather pattern.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which temperature bin will contain the daily maximum; they update as forecast models and observations change. For final verification, refer to the contract's specified resolution source rather than market prices.
The market will resolve according to the resolution source and timing specified in the contract (check the market page). Resolution typically uses the official highest temperature reported for the contract's designated Oklahoma City observing site for calendar date March 8, 2026; final settlement follows the published official value.
They are six mutually exclusive temperature bins or thresholds that partition the possible highest-temperature values for that day at the contract's official station. Only the bin that contains the measured daily maximum will be the winning outcome—see the contract text for the exact breakpoints.
Climatology provides a baseline expectation (early March is a transition month), but it cannot substitute for short-range forecasts: synoptic features that arrive near March 8 will dominate the realized maximum. Use climatology to understand typical variability but rely on current model guidance for short-term moves.
Watch short-range numerical guidance (e.g., high-resolution and ensemble model runs), National Weather Service forecasts, METAR and ASOS observations from Oklahoma City’s official station, satellite trends, and frontal timing analyses—pay particular attention to cloud, precipitation, and frontal timing that affect daytime heating.
Yes—raw observations can be quality-controlled and adjusted in official datasets. The market follows the value and revision rules specified in the contract’s resolution source, so check the contract for whether preliminary or finalized values are used for settlement.