| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 58° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will record the highest air temperature in Oklahoma City on March 7, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, public safety decisions, and local weather-sensitive operations.
Oklahoma City has large day-to-day temperature swings in early March driven by the clash of late-winter cold air and early-spring warmth; synoptic-scale fronts and Gulf moisture can both produce rapid temperature changes. Local observation networks (airport METARs, the Oklahoma Mesonet, and NWS official observations) provide the measurements traders and forecasters monitor in the days leading up to the date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which discrete temperature outcome will occur and will move as forecasts and observations change; use them as a real-time indicator of shifting expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement is determined by the official observation specified in the market's rules—typically the National Weather Service/NOAA official temperature for Oklahoma City (often the primary airport or designated official station). Check the event's settlement rules on the market page for the exact station and dataset.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range listed on the event page; the exact numeric bounds and labels are provided there and are used for final settlement.
Most city temperature markets use the local calendar date (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the official observation site, but you should confirm the precise settlement window in the market's rules on the event page.
The market's close time is listed on the event page; if it shows TBD, monitor the market page for updates—organizers typically set a deadline before or at the start of the settlement day and will announce it there.
Key sources include short-range numerical weather prediction guidance (GFS, ECMWF, high-resolution convective models), National Weather Service forecasts and alerts, local Oklahoma Mesonet observations, and METAR reports from the primary airport—these provide the evolving signals that traders use to update expectations.