| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° or above | 2% | 1¢ | 6¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 12% | 18¢ | 19¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 42% | 35¢ | 48¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 9% | 9¢ | 13¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 24% | 24¢ | 31¢ | — | $937 | Trade → |
This market settles on the highest air temperature officially observed in Oklahoma City on March 6, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views about short-range weather outcomes and for those tracking temperature extremes in the region.
Oklahoma City weather in early March sits near the transition from winter to spring, a period characterized by rapid swings between cold continental air and warm Gulf advection. Large-scale features such as the position of the jet stream, frontal passages, and surface high pressure commonly drive wide day-to-day temperature variability in central Oklahoma. Historical records and local climatology provide context but do not determine the specific outcome for this date.
Market prices reflect the collective view of participants about which outcome will occur; they should be read as signals of market sentiment rather than fixed forecasts. For operational details about how the contract is resolved, consult the contract rules and resolution source listed on the Kalshi event page.
The event will be resolved according to the specific resolution source and procedures listed in the Kalshi contract for this market; that often references an official National Weather Service/NOAA observing station for Oklahoma City. Check the market's contract page to confirm the exact source.
The applicable 24-hour period and the timezone used for resolution are defined in the market's contract terms. Many weather contracts use the local calendar date for the official observing station, but you should verify the contract language on the event page.
Rounding, significant digits, and units used for resolution are specified in the contract's settlement rules. If that detail is not on the event page, consult Kalshi's market documentation or contact support to confirm how values are truncated or rounded.
Resolution typically follows the official source and time-stamped observations specified in the contract; whether later agency adjustments affect payout depends on the platform's stated policy. Review the contract's provisions on data revisions and dispute resolution.
Use short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and nowcasts, recent METAR/observational trends from the official Oklahoma City station, forecast discussions from the NWS Norman office, and the timing of expected cloud cover or fronts; also monitor updates as the event date approaches because small timing shifts can materially change the daily maximum.