| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° or above | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 8% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 68° or below | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 12% | 12¢ | 15¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 41% | 36¢ | 42¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 31% | 30¢ | 33¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six discrete temperature ranges will contain the highest observed temperature in Oklahoma City on March 5, 2026. It matters because it aggregates forecasts and local observations into a single resolved outcome that reflects weather risk for that specific date.
March is a transition month in central Oklahoma with strong swings possible between warm spring incursions and late-season cold fronts, so daily extremes can move substantially in the days before the event. Historical variability in early March means forecasts rely heavily on the timing of synoptic-scale features (ridges, troughs, and fronts) as well as local factors such as cloud cover and precipitation. The market will resolve to the official observation tied to the data source specified on the contract page.
Market prices represent the market's consensus about which temperature range is most likely to be the highest on that date, incorporating up-to-date forecasts, climatology, and trader information. Use them as a real-time synthesis of competing information rather than as fixed forecasts — check official meteorological sources for raw observations once the day arrives.
KALSHI will resolve the market using the highest official temperature observation for the specified station and date as defined on the contract page; that single observation determines which discrete outcome is the winner.
The contract page specifies the data source used for settlement; KALSHI typically uses the official National Weather Service/ASOS observation for Oklahoma City (Will Rogers World Airport, KOKC) unless the market rules state a different dataset—consult the market's resolution rules to confirm.
The market uses the local calendar day window defined in the contract rules (usually 00:00 to 23:59 local standard time for the official station); check the market's settlement rules for the authoritative time standard.
The market's close time is set by KALSHI and is listed on the event page (currently TBD); markets often close before the observation period begins, and any close-time details or changes are reflected on the contract page.
If data are missing or questionable, KALSHI follows its published resolution procedures, which may include using backup official stations, quality-controlled data, or other authoritative sources; read the market's resolution policy for specifics.