| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or below | 97% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
This market resolves to the highest air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 4, 2026. It matters because the day’s peak temperature affects energy demand, agriculture, transportation decisions, and local operations.
Early March in central Oklahoma sits in a transition season with large swings possible between warm Gulf air and cold continental outbreaks; synoptic-scale pattern and frontal timing often drive whether a day is unusually warm or cool. Historical records show substantial day-to-day variability this time of year, so traders typically combine recent model guidance with climatology and local observations when forming views.
Market prices express the collective expectations about which temperature outcome will be realized; use them as a read on relative likelihoods across the available outcomes and as a complement to meteorological forecast products rather than a single definitive forecast.
The market will settle per the official settlement rules posted on the KALSHI event page; typically that means the highest official air temperature recorded at the market’s designated observing site for Oklahoma City during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local). Check the market page for the exact station and measurement definition.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to one of the discrete temperature bins listed on the market. The outcome that contains the verified highest observed temperature in Oklahoma City on Mar 4, 2026 will be the settling outcome.
Close time is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement generally occurs after the designated data provider publishes the official daily summary for March 4. The market page will specify the authoritative data source and the expected settlement timeline — consult it for precise details.
The market’s settlement and dispute rules govern such cases; common procedures include using nearby official stations, quality-controlled post-processed datasets, or other fallback sources as defined by the event’s rules. Review the market’s settlement policy on KALSHI for exact remedies and timelines.
Compare climatological normals and past March 4 temperatures in Oklahoma City to gauge baseline expectations, then layer in current model guidance (short-range ensembles and deterministic runs), surface observations, and NWS forecasts to evaluate whether synoptic conditions favor warmer or cooler outcomes for that calendar day.