| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 29, 2026. Outcomes matter for local weather risk, energy demand planning, and short-term event logistics.
Late March is a transitional season in the southern Plains, so Oklahoma City can see rapid swings driven by intrusions of warm Gulf air or fast-moving cold fronts. Large-scale patterns (latitude of the jet stream, any frontal passage) and mesoscale phenomena (cloud cover, convective storms) set daily extremes, and those drivers change quickly as observations and model runs update.
Market prices reflect collective judgment about which predefined temperature outcome is most likely given current forecasts and new data; they update as models, observations, and analyst views change. Use prices as a real-time signal, and consult the event rules for exact settlement definitions.
The official 24-hour window and timezone are specified in the market's settlement rules; typically these markets use the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) as defined on the event page—check the event description for the authoritative definition.
Settlement will use the specific observing station or dataset named in the event's settlement clause (commonly the designated NWS/ASOS station for Oklahoma City or another officially listed source). Traders should verify the exact station/data source on the event page before trading.
The precise measurement method (instantaneous maximum, minute-averaged max, rounding rules and units) is defined in the market's settlement rules; consult the event details to see the exact definition used for this market.
Market close is listed as TBD on the event header; final settlement typically occurs after the designated observing agency publishes the official daily temperature record for March 29, and the event page will note the timing and data release used for settlement.
Follow short- and medium-range model guidance (ECMWF, GFS and their ensembles), high-resolution convective-allowing models for storm timing, surface analyses for frontal timing, NWS forecasts for Oklahoma City, and real-time satellite/radar and surface observations to track cloud cover and precipitation trends.