| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 26, 2026 will be. It matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, public health risk, agriculture, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions.
Late March is a transitional month for central Oklahoma, when strong cold fronts, rapid warm-ups, and springtime storm systems can all occur within a few days of each other. Oklahoma City has a history of large day-to-day temperature swings driven by the position of the jet stream and interactions between Gulf moisture and continental air masses. Market estimates will evolve as operational weather forecasts and observations update in the days and hours before the date.
Market prices/odds summarize traders' collective expectation about which temperature outcome will be observed, and they update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use them as a real-time market signal, not as a guarantee of the actual recorded maximum.
Settlement is based on the official daily maximum temperature reported by the designated NOAA/NWS reporting station for Oklahoma City (typically the Will Rogers World Airport station) or the source specified in the market rules; consult the market page for the exact designated observing site.
The outcome whose temperature range contains the official highest temperature reported for the designated observing station on March 26, 2026 will be declared the winner; if the observed value falls on a boundary, KALSHI's published settlement rules specify how that case is handled.
The market's close time is shown on the market page (currently listed as TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation is available and after KALSHI completes its verification process—check the market page and KALSHI's settlement policy for exact timestamps.
March in Oklahoma City is climatologically variable, so both cool and warm single-day extremes have occurred historically; traders often look at multi-decade climatology and recent seasonal trends to gauge how unusual a given maximum would be, but exact historical ranks require consulting the official climate records.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model guidance (e.g., GFS, ECMWF, regional models and short-range runs like HRRR), official NWS forecasts and discussions for the Oklahoma City area, surface and upper-air observations, and mesoscale updates (satellite and radar) that indicate cloud cover, fronts, or convective potential.