| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be recorded as the highest in Oklahoma City on March 25, 2026; it matters to traders who want to express views on short-term weather outcomes and to anyone tracking late‑March temperature extremes in the region.
Oklahoma City sits in a region of strong springtime variability where warm and cold air masses frequently clash; late March can produce anything from unseasonably warm days to strong frontal passages that suppress highs. Historical records and recent climatic trends inform expectations, but day‑to‑day synoptic setup and mesoscale features typically drive the realized temperature on a single date.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which discrete outcome will contain the day's high; prices move as new model runs, observations, and short‑range forecasts arrive. Use prices as a real‑time summary of market sentiment, while also consulting weather model output and official observations for technical context.
The official result will be determined by the dataset specified in the market's resolution rules; typically that is the National Weather Service official observation for the primary Oklahoma City station (the NWS airport station) or an equivalent designated climate station—check the market rules for the exact station and dataset.
Each of the six outcomes represents a mutually exclusive temperature range or discrete value that covers the plausible span of highs for that date; the outcome that contains the observed official high for the day is the winner—see the market page for the precise boundaries of each outcome.
Trading closes at the time shown on the market page (listed as TBD until set); forecasts and new observations can influence market prices up until that listed close time, while the settled result depends on the official observational period for March 25 as defined in the resolution rules.
Settlement will rely on the official observational source named in the market rules—commonly NWS/NOAA station reports or the National Centers for Environmental Information daily summaries for the designated Oklahoma City station. The market's resolution policy will state which dataset and time conventions are authoritative.
Use historical late‑March variability to frame the range of plausible highs—recognize that the climate record shows both warm spells and cold fronts are possible on March 25. Combine climatology with current synoptic forecasts (front positions, model ensembles, and recent observations) to form a short‑term expectation for the specific date.