| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 24, 2026 will be. It matters because the day's maximum temperature affects energy demand, outdoor events, and short-term risk assessments for agriculture and infrastructure.
Late March in central Oklahoma is a transitional time with strong variability: temperatures can swing quickly between unseasonably warm days under a strong ridge and cooler, cloudier conditions behind a Pacific or Gulf-front system. Historical springs in the region show frequent contrasts driven by the timing of frontal passages, mesoscale convective systems, and large-scale pattern shifts.
Prediction market prices represent an aggregation of trader expectations based on available forecasts and information and can change as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat prices as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast; check the market page for settlement rules and data sources.
The market's settlement rules specify the exact observation source and time standard; many weather markets use the official NOAA/NWS ASOS or equivalent station for the city (e.g., Will Rogers World Airport) and daily maxima as reported in the station's local time. Consult the market page for the definitive source and time standard.
The market page lists the six discrete outcomes and their numeric temperature ranges or bins; those outcome definitions determine how the recorded maximum maps to a winning outcome. Review the outcome labels on the market interface to see the precise ranges.
The market shows the close time as TBD; settlement typically occurs after the official daily maximum for March 24, 2026 has been published and any specified confirmation window has passed. Check the market page for the announced close and the settlement timing once it is set.
Traders commonly monitor NWS/Local Forecasts, model guidance (GFS, ECMWF, NAM), short-range ensembles, high-resolution convection-allowing models (HRRR, RAP), surface observations and mesonet data, satellite/cloud analyses, and the NWS Norman office statements for central Oklahoma.
Major revisions typically come from changes in frontal timing, shifts in the large-scale ridge/trough pattern, new information about cloud cover or precipitation chances, emergence of mesoscale convective systems, and updated high-resolution model runs within 24–72 hours of the event.