| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City will be on March 23, 2026. Outcomes let traders express beliefs about how warm or cool that specific calendar day will be, which matters for short-term weather risk and planning.
Oklahoma City sits in a highly variable spring climate zone where late-March weather can swing from cool, post-frontal conditions to rapid warm-ups driven by Gulf moisture and southwesterly flow. Single-day highs are strongly influenced by synoptic setup (frontal positions, upper-level ridges/troughs) and local factors such as cloud cover and urban station siting. Historical records show large day-to-day variability in March, so markets often move as new model runs and observations arrive.
Market prices reflect the aggregated expectations of participants about the eventual observed maximum temperature and update as forecasts and observations change. Interpret prices as a summary of market beliefs and check the event's settlement rules for the exact measurement definition used to determine the winner.
Settlement follows the event's official rules: the highest air temperature recorded by the designated official observing station during the local calendar date for March 23, 2026. Check the event page for the precise instrument and measurement standard referenced.
The event's settlement rule specifies the authoritative data source and station; many weather contracts use the National Weather Service/ASOS observation for Oklahoma City (the NWS station serving the metro area), but you must confirm the exact station and dataset listed on this event page.
The relevant window is the local calendar day at the designated observing station (00:00 to 23:59:59 local time) as defined in the event rules; note that Oklahoma City will be on Central Daylight Time on March 23, 2026, so local-day definitions matter for cross-timezone interpretation.
This event currently lists a TBD closing time; the event page will state the trading close. Settlement typically occurs after the observation is published and any required quality-control or official verification is complete, which can introduce a short lag after the calendar date.
Late March is a transitional period with wide variability: climatological averages are rising toward spring but strong warm spells and cold frontal intrusions are both common. Traders should consider recent long- and short-range model trends, seasonal teleconnection signals, soil moisture and cloud trends, and any unusual blocking or storm systems expected around the date.