| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Oklahoma City will be on March 22, 2026. It matters to weather-sensitive industries, traders, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability in the region.
Oklahoma City sits in a highly changeable spring climate zone where large day-to-day swings are common as mid-latitude weather systems and Gulf air masses interact. Late March is transitional: it can see both unseasonably warm outbreaks and late-season cold fronts, so forecasts frequently change as model guidance and observations evolve. The market will be resolved against an official meteorological observation specified by the event.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders based on current forecasts, observations, and news; they update in real time as new information arrives. Treat them as a dynamic indicator of consensus rather than a certainty.
The event resolution will use the official data source named in the market description—typically the National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) observation for Oklahoma City (commonly Will Rogers World Airport, KOKC). Refer to the market's rules for the exact station and dataset used for settlement.
It is the highest air temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated observation site. March 22, 2026 falls after the March daylight-saving switch, so local time will be Central Daylight Time (CDT); the market description will confirm the time convention and units.
The official daily maximum is the highest reported air temperature at the station as measured by the site's standard instrumentation and reporting protocol (typically the highest observed value within the day as recorded by automated or manual observations). The exact measurement convention used for settlement will be specified in the event rules.
If the official data are missing or quality-control flags are present, the event will be resolved according to the market's published dispute and resolution procedures—usually deferring to the official data provider's corrected record or KALSHI's stated fallback rules. Contact the platform for the precise dispute process.
Use climatology as a baseline to understand the range of plausible values for late March in Oklahoma City, but rely on recent model runs, satellite and surface observations, and the evolving synoptic setup for short-term forecasting. Rapid changes in frontal timing, cloud cover, and mesoscale activity in the 48–72 hours before the date often have the biggest impact on the final outcome.