| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the highest temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 21, 2026. It matters because highest-daily-temperature outcomes reflect short-term weather risk that affects energy demand, public safety, and outdoor plans.
Late March in Oklahoma City is a transitional period with high variability: the region can experience warm spells, strong cold fronts, or storm systems that change temperatures rapidly. Seasonal background (e.g., large-scale patterns like ridges, troughs, or ENSO phase) and recent local trends both influence expectations for this specific date.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which temperature outcome is most likely; movements reflect new forecasts, observations, and shifting uncertainty. Use market odds as a real-time signal that complements official meteorological forecasts rather than as a substitute for them.
Resolution will follow the market's contract text and use the official observation source named on the market page; typically that means the highest official air temperature recorded at the designated Oklahoma City reporting station during the local calendar date of March 21, 2026, as reported by the specified data provider.
The market contract names the authoritative data provider and/or reporting station (check the market page). For Oklahoma City, platforms commonly use the official National Weather Service climate station for the city; confirm the exact source in the contract text.
The market will resolve after the designated data provider posts its official daily summary for March 21, 2026; the platform will publish the resolved outcome and timestamp once the contract's resolution criteria are met—see the market page for the expected resolution procedure and any posting delays.
Tie-handling is defined in the contract text; in practice platforms use the recorded official value as posted by the data provider and apply any rounding or aggregation rules specified by the market—check those rules on the market page for this event.
Traders watch operational NWP outputs (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, high-resolution mesoscale models), NWS/local office forecasts and discussions, surface and upper-air observations, satellite/radar trends, and short-term nowcasts; late changes in these sources often drive the strongest market moves.