| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City will be on March 20, 2026; it matters to traders, planners, and anyone tracking springtime weather variability in the region.
Oklahoma City sits in a region with large springtime swings driven by competing air masses, so March dates can produce anything from cool, below-normal readings to rapid warm-ups. Historical climate records and seasonal forecast patterns provide context, but single-day outcomes depend strongly on short-term synoptic and mesoscale conditions.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations based on available weather models, observations, and news; use them alongside official forecasts and local observations as a probabilistic signal rather than a guarantee.
The highest temperature refers to the maximum official air temperature recorded for the calendar date at the observing location specified by the market; check the contract for the exact measurement window and whether it uses local standard or daylight time and which instrument network is referenced.
Resolution is based on the specific observing station or official data source named in the market contract—typically the primary NOAA/NWS reporting station for Oklahoma City; consult the market’s resolution rules to see the exact station and dataset that will be used.
The market will resolve only after the official observations for that date are published; timing depends on when the referenced data provider posts its daily summary—see the market page for the contract’s resolution timing and any allowed verification sources.
The six outcomes partition the range of possible highest temperatures into mutually exclusive bins; the market page lists the precise temperature ranges for each outcome and how they cover the full spectrum of plausible maxima.
Use long-term normals and past extremes for March 20 to establish a climatological baseline, but weigh that against current short-range forecasts and synoptic indicators—the climatology sets context but single-day outcomes are driven mainly by the immediate weather pattern.