| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several outcome bins will contain the highest observed temperature in Oklahoma City on March 2, 2026; it matters because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, agriculture, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions.
Oklahoma City sits in a highly variable mid‑latitude transition zone where strong frontal passages, Gulf moisture, and rapid springtime warming or cooling swings are common. Markets like this aggregate trader expectations based on evolving forecasts and local climatology, while the eventual settlement depends on the official observing station and dataset specified by the event.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of future observations and will move as forecast models and observations change; use them as a real-time signal of how available information is shifting, not as a fixed forecast.
The outcome will be determined from the official daily maximum temperature reported for the designated Oklahoma City climate station for the calendar date Mar 2, 2026 (covering 00:00–23:59 local time). Settlement timing and the exact data feed used are specified in the market’s resolution rules; check the event page for the authoritative source and any finalization delays.
The market’s resolution rules specify the authoritative station or dataset (commonly the National Weather Service/ASOS station at Will Rogers World Airport or NCEI daily summaries). Traders should verify the event page for the exact named source since resolution follows that specified dataset.
Yes. National and local agencies sometimes apply post‑observation quality control or corrections; the market will resolve using the official dataset defined in its rules, which may incorporate those adjustments if the rules reference a finalized or quality‑controlled source.
Settlement typically occurs after the official daily summary for the specified station is published, which can be same‑day or within a few days; if the event references a final quality‑controlled dataset, settlement may wait until that dataset is released—see the event’s resolution policy for exact timing.
Conditions that favor a higher maximum include sustained southerly low‑level flow bringing warm air from the Gulf, clear skies and strong solar insolation during peak daytime hours, absence of precipitation or frontal incursions during the day, and any downslope warming effects associated with local wind patterns.