| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Oklahoma City will be on March 19, 2026; it matters to traders, weather risk managers, and anyone interested in short-term temperature outcomes. Outcomes reflect a single, verifiable daily maximum and are useful for hedging weather-dependent operations or testing forecast skill.
March is a transitional month in Oklahoma with large day-to-day variability driven by mid-latitude storm tracks, frontal passages, and occasional warm-air intrusions from the south. Oklahoma City’s daily maxima are influenced by synoptic-scale patterns, local surface conditions, and the timing of diurnal heating versus cloud cover and precipitation. Historical records show substantial variability in March, so markets for a single date can move as model guidance and observations change in the days before the event.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of participants about which temperature outcome will be observed; they update as new forecast models, observations, and local conditions arrive. Use odds as a dynamic, real-time summary of expectations rather than a fixed forecast — check the contract terms for how outcomes are defined and how resolution will be confirmed.
The market resolves to the official observing station or dataset specified in the contract terms (typically an NWS/NOAA official climate station serving Oklahoma City). Consult the market rules to see the exact station and dataset named for resolution.
The contract will define the local calendar day used for resolution (for example 00:00 to 23:59 local time at the specified observing site). Check the market terms for the precise local time window used to calculate the daily maximum.
Resolution normally uses the official daily maximum as recorded and quality-controlled by the named observing network (e.g., ASOS/COOP) and reported in the official daily climate summary; the contract specifies whether the value is an instantaneous observation, hourly report, or other official metric.
Contract rules typically include contingency procedures—such as using a nearby official station, a corrected quality-controlled series, or a secondary data source—so review the market’s resolution policy to see how data gaps or sensor failures are handled.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model trends for frontal timing and strength, surface dew point and wind direction forecasts, mesoscale convective indications (storms or clouds), and short-term observations from local stations and radiosonde soundings that indicate boundary-layer heating potential.