| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City will be on March 17, 2026; it's useful for traders and observers tracking short-term weather risk and seasonal anomalies. Outcomes provide a way to express expectations about that single calendar day's peak temperature based on forecasts and observations.
Oklahoma City sits in a region where early to mid‑March temperatures can swing widely from unseasonably warm afternoons to cool, stormy conditions, driven by shifting Pacific and Gulf air masses. Historical March extremes and year‑to‑year variability mean both synoptic weather patterns and longer‑term climate trends can influence a single date's high. Markets like this synthesize model guidance, local observations, and participant judgment into a tradable view of that day’s outcome.
Market prices and odds represent the collective assessment of which temperature range is most likely to contain the observed high; they should be treated as a real‑time signal that complements, not replaces, meteorological forecast products.
The market close is listed as TBD; the trading platform will post the official close time on the market page and typically closes before the observation period for that calendar day or when settlement rules specify.
This market uses the maximum air temperature recorded during the Oklahoma City calendar day at the official observing station(s) specified in the market rules—typically the National Weather Service station designated for Oklahoma City—and the market page lists the exact primary and backup data sources used for settlement.
The six outcomes correspond to non‑overlapping temperature ranges for the day's highest observed temperature; the outcome whose range contains the final settled maximum temperature from the designated observation source is the winner.
Settlement follows the market's published dispute and data rules: if primary observations are unavailable or revised, the market uses designated backup sources or waits for final quality‑controlled values as specified, which can delay settlement until official data are finalized.
Watch operational model runs and ensemble forecasts for high temperature guidance, the timing of any frontal passages, mesoscale model output for cloud and precipitation chances, and official NWS short‑term forecasts for Oklahoma City as the date approaches.