| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market on KALSHI asks which outcome will match the highest air temperature observed in Oklahoma City on March 16, 2026. It matters because daily high temperatures are driven by rapidly changing weather systems, so the market reflects near-term meteorological uncertainty for a specific date and place.
Oklahoma City sits in a transitional climate zone where late-winter to early-spring temperature swings are common; March can feature warm Gulf air intrusions, strong cold fronts, or a mix of clouds and sun that markedly change daily highs. Historical March variability and the timing of synoptic systems (fronts, upper-level ridging) often determine whether a particular date is unusually warm or cool.
Market prices represent the crowd’s assessment of which temperature outcome is most likely given current forecasts and information, and they typically update as new observations and model runs become available. Interpret prices as evolving signals that incorporate both forecast skill and real-time uncertainty rather than fixed truths.
The market will settle to the highest official air temperature recorded on March 16, 2026 at the designated observing station and dataset specified in the market’s settlement rules; consult the market contract for the exact station and dataset named by KALSHI.
The specific station or dataset is defined in the market’s settlement terms; typically platforms reference the National Weather Service/NOAA official observing station for the city, but you should check the market’s rule text to confirm the designated source for Oklahoma City.
The usual approach is the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time for Oklahoma City) as recorded by the specified observing station; verify the exact time-zone and interval in the market’s settlement rules to be certain.
Markets include fallback or dispute procedures in their settlement rules: common outcomes are using an alternative authorized dataset, following defined interpolation/fill rules, or applying the platform’s dispute-resolution policy—check the contract’s contingency and adjudication clauses.
Historical climatology gives a baseline for what is typical or extreme on March 16 and can help frame how plausible different outcomes are, but current synoptic forecasts (model guidance, front timing) are crucial for predicting the actual day’s maximum temperature.