| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcomes will be the highest temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 15, 2026, and matters for weather-sensitive decisions and short-term planning. It provides a way to aggregate expectations about that single-day temperature outcome.
March in Oklahoma City is climatologically variable, with large swings possible due to passing fronts and shifts in the jet stream. Long-term warming trends can raise baseline temperatures, but the day-to-day high for a single date is primarily driven by synoptic-scale weather patterns and local conditions. Markets like this capture how new model runs, observations, and participant information change expectations as the date approaches.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders and update as forecasts and observations change, so they should be read as a real-time summary of available information rather than a fixed forecast.
Resolution timing is shown on the market page (currently TBD); the winning outcome will be determined by the official highest temperature measurement for Oklahoma City on March 15, 2026 as defined in the event's resolution rules, so check the market’s rulebook or event description for the named observing source and settlement timestamp.
The event's resolution rules specify the official source; some markets use a single designated station (often an FAA/NOAA airport station) while others use a defined city metric—consult the event details to see which definition applies to Oklahoma City.
It normally refers to the calendar date in the local time zone of the designated observing station; because clocks may be on local daylight saving time in mid-March, verify the event's resolution language to confirm whether local wall-clock time or another convention is used.
Settlement procedures for precision and ties are defined in the market rules; the event description will state whether reported values are rounded or used as reported and what tie-breaking or dispute process, if any, will be applied.
Track short-range model runs and ensemble spreads, forecasts of frontal timing or storm development, satellite and radar observations for cloud/precipitation trends, official station observations near Oklahoma City, and any rapid shifts in large-scale patterns that could alter temperature expectations.