| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City will be on March 14, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning, energy demand forecasting, and seasonal-climate interest. Traders express views about the day’s peak warmth relative to other possible outcomes.
Oklahoma City sits in a region with strong seasonal variability and frequent interactions between cold continental air and warm Gulf moisture, so March days can swing from cool to unusually warm depending on synoptic setup. Historical March 14 values vary year to year, and the specific outcome for 2026 will reflect that day’s synoptic pattern and local conditions.
Prediction market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature outcome will occur and update as new weather forecasts and observations arrive; treat prices as a snapshot of market consensus rather than fixed truth.
Closing time is listed as TBD on the market; resolution typically occurs after official observational data for March 14 are published by the designated reporting authority, and the market rules will state the precise resolution timing once set.
The contract will specify the resolving data source; if not explicitly stated, market practice is to use the official National Weather Service reporting station for Oklahoma City (commonly Will Rogers World Airport) or another named official station as defined in the market rules—check the contract for the definitive source.
The day generally refers to the local calendar date at the resolving station (00:00 to 23:59 local standard/time used by the station); the exact definition will be in the contract’s resolution rules.
Resolution follows the measurement practices of the chosen observing network and instrument—some stations report instantaneous observations, others report highest rounded or averaged values; the market’s resolution source determines whether brief spikes count, so consult the listed data provider and resolution method.
The market’s rules will specify fallback procedures: common options include using an alternate official source, using nearby station data, or declaring the market void if no reliable data exist; check the contract’s contingency and dispute-resolution clauses for specifics.