| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the highest official air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 13, 2026. The outcome matters for weather-sensitive planners, energy traders, and anyone tracking short-term temperature extremes.
Oklahoma City experiences large swings in early spring due to the clash of warm Gulf air and cold continental intrusions; a single frontal passage can change conditions dramatically on the same day. Recent decades have seen more frequent extreme warm events, but mid-March remains a highly variable period where both unseasonably warm and cool outcomes are plausible.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which temperature outcome will be observed and will update as forecasts and observations change. They should be interpreted as a real-time consensus signal rather than a deterministic forecast from any single agency.
The market will settle on the highest official air temperature recorded at the event's designated observation site during the local calendar date March 13, 2026 (00:00–23:59 local time). The event rules name the specific data provider and station used for settlement — consult those rules for the definitive source.
Closing time is listed as TBD; KALSHI will publish the market close once set. Final settlement typically occurs after the designated data provider releases and verifies the official daily observations, which can take from the same day up to a few days after the observation date.
The event rules specify the settlement source; common references include National Weather Service/NOAA observations from the official Oklahoma City station (e.g., the airport ASOS site) or curated NCEI datasets. Always verify the named source on the event page.
Yes — readings are counted for the local calendar date in Oklahoma City (Central Time). Only measurements recorded within 00:00–23:59 local time on March 13, 2026 will be eligible for determining the highest temperature, following the observation practices of the designated data provider.
Model shifts that alter frontal timing, changes in predicted cloud cover or precipitation probability, adjustments to wind direction or speed (which affect air-mass advection), and mesoscale developments like convective timing or cloud cover trends can all move expectations as the date approaches.