| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain the highest observed temperature in Oklahoma City on March 12, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather risk, and for downstream users tracking extremes for energy, agriculture, and event planning.
March is a highly transitional month in central Oklahoma, with potential for both warm advection and late-season cold frontal incursions; year-to-year variability on a single date can be large. Market prices will reflect evolving meteorological forecasts, recent observations, and the official observational record used for settlement; check the KALSHI event page for the exact settlement rules and data source.
Market odds represent the collective market expectation about which temperature range will contain the daily high and will change as forecasts and observations evolve. Treat prices as a real-time consensus signal, not a deterministic prediction.
Settlement will use the official daily maximum temperature reported for Oklahoma City by the designated observing site identified in the event rules (typically the National Weather Service/NOAA station serving OKC); confirm the exact source on the KALSHI event page.
The market uses the local calendar day for March 12 (00:00 through 23:59 local time) as defined by the official data provider; consult the event rules on KALSHI for precise timing and timezone conventions.
The closing time is set by KALSHI and is listed on the event page; some weather markets close before the observation date while others remain open up to the start of the measurement window—check the event details for this market's closing policy.
Use climatology as a baseline to understand typical variability and the range of plausible outcomes for that calendar date; combine that baseline with current forecast signals to form a view rather than relying on history alone.
Watch short-range model runs and ensembles for shifts in the jet stream, timing of any frontal passage, strength of low- or high-pressure systems, cloud/precipitation forecasts (which suppress heating), and near-surface temperature advection—all of which strongly affect the daily maximum.