| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Oklahoma City on March 11, 2026; it matters for traders wagering on short‑term weather outcomes and for anyone tracking seasonal warmth or cold on that date.
Oklahoma City experiences large day‑to‑day temperature swings in early March driven by shifting storm tracks and air‑mass contrasts; markets like this package those meteorological uncertainties into discrete outcomes. Historical records for the calendar date and recent seasonal trends provide useful context but do not determine the single‑day outcome.
Market prices reflect collective assessments of which temperature bin is most likely to contain the day’s maximum; interpret prices as real‑time signals of market sentiment, while consulting the contract page for exact bin definitions and settlement rules.
The market will resolve to the official highest hourly (or synoptic) air temperature recorded by the meteorological station specified in the contract. Check the market's resolution text to confirm the exact station, time convention (local vs UTC), and authoritative data source (for example, an NWS/NOAA observational report).
Closing time is set by the platform and currently listed as TBD on the market page; final settlement typically occurs after the official daily observations for March 11 are published and any verification window in the contract has passed. Consult the market page and contract for the platform’s stated close and settlement schedule.
Each of the six outcomes maps to a mutually exclusive temperature range (bins) that together cover the plausible values for the day’s maximum temperature; one outcome may capture values below or above the listed ranges. The market page lists the exact numeric boundaries and any special handling for values on bin edges.
Look at the long‑term climatology and past daily maximums for March 11 at the official Oklahoma City station, recent year‑to‑year deviations around early March, and documented record highs or lows for that calendar date to gauge how typical or extreme a given outcome would be.
Resolution contingencies are specified in the contract: common approaches include using the nearest official station, provisional NWS/NOAA updates, or final adjusted values from the named source after any correction window. Review the contract’s contingency and dispute procedures to see which backup sources and verification periods apply.