| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on March 10, 2026. It matters for short-term weather risk management, local planning, and testing forecast skill over a specific calendar day.
Oklahoma City experiences strong variability in early March as winter transitions toward spring; frontal passages, sunny stretches, or late-season cold snaps can each produce very different daily maxima. This market is structured into discrete outcomes (six bands), letting traders express views about different temperature ranges; resolution will rely on an official observational source specified by the event.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s relative assessment of which temperature band will be the day’s maximum and should be interpreted as a tradable summary of current information, not a fixed forecast.
The event will resolve to the official observational source named in the event’s resolution text. Markets like this commonly use the primary National Weather Service (NWS)/NOAA reporting station serving Oklahoma City (the official ASOS/AWOS), but you must check the event page to confirm the specific station or dataset referenced for resolution.
Resolution typically uses the local civil calendar day reported by the chosen observing station (00:00 to 23:59 local time). Because local time can include daylight saving shifts in March, confirm the event’s resolution language to see how the platform defines the valid time window.
Tie-breaking, rounding precision, and contingency procedures (such as using a backup station, nearest official station, or a specified dataset) are defined in the event’s resolution rules; consult those rules for the exact fallback and tie-resolution method.
The event’s posted close time is the authoritative cutoff; if the page lists ‘TBD,’ the platform will announce a closing time before trading ends. Resolution typically occurs after the official daily observations are available from the cited source—check the event page and platform announcements for the schedule.
Monitor short-range numerical weather prediction models and ensemble spreads, surface and upper-air analyses, high-resolution hourly forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation, and real-time surface observations from the Oklahoma City reporting station. Climatology for early March in Oklahoma City provides a baseline expectation, but synoptic timing and mesoscale details often drive the daily maximum.