| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $73K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $59K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $56K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| 62° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which discrete temperature outcome will represent the highest observed temperature in New York City on March 9, 2026; it matters because it aggregates public expectations about a specific weather outcome and can be useful for planning weather-sensitive activities and hedging weather risk.
March is a transitional month in New York, so temperatures can swing widely depending on the position of large-scale weather systems, recent cold snaps, or early warm fronts. Historical variability for early March reflects influences from the North Atlantic, the jet stream, and local factors like snow cover and urban effects, all of which can push the day toward an unusually warm or cool high. The market uses discrete outcome bins (six outcomes) to represent possible highest-temperature ranges for that calendar date.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which temperature bin will be the observed maximum on that date; interpret prices as relative market sentiment rather than fixed forecasts, and consult the contract rules for exact settlement definitions and the designated reporting station.
It refers to the maximum air temperature recorded for the specified calendar date at the official reporting location designated in the contract; consult the contract for whether the measurement uses a specific station and the exact measurement standard (e.g., 2-meter air temperature).
Settlement will follow the data source and station specified in the market's official rules; check the event contract on the platform for the designated reporting station (the platform typically references an official observing network such as the National Weather Service or another authoritative source).
The market uses the calendar date definition specified in the contract (usually local time midnight-to-midnight for the designated station); verify the contract text for the applicable time zone and exact start/end times.
The contract should define tie-breaking or dispute-resolution procedures; common approaches include relying solely on the designated station's official observation record or following the platform's published settlement and dispute rules.
Historical records show the range of past highs and typical variability for early March, which helps contextualize how unusual a given outcome would be; use long-term station climatology and recent trends as background but remember that each year’s synoptic conditions determine the actual result.