| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $65K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $62K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $61K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| 61° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in New York City on March 8, 2026. It matters because daily-temperature outcomes reflect short-term weather dynamics and are of interest to traders, event planners, and people tracking seasonal variability.
Early March in New York City is a transitional period between winter and spring, so synoptic-scale systems (cold fronts, coastal storms, warm advection) strongly influence the daily maximum. Historical records and recent climate trends make some outcomes more likely on certain synoptic setups, but day-to-day variability remains high. The market's settlement and data source are specified on the event page and determine which observation counts as the official high.
Market odds summarize the collective beliefs and risk preferences of participants about which outcome will occur, not a definitive forecast. Use them alongside meteorological forecasts and the event's settlement rules when evaluating the market.
The close time is listed as TBD on the event page; check the market interface for the official close. Closing time matters because trading typically ends before the official observation period used for settlement, so late-arriving weather information after close will not affect positions.
The event's settlement rules on the market page specify the official data source (for example, a National Weather Service station such as Central Park or another designated station). Always consult those rules to know which station and dataset will be used for settlement.
Outcomes are typically defined as non-overlapping temperature ranges; the settlement rules state whether range endpoints are inclusive or exclusive. Review the market's specification for endpoint inclusion and any tie-breaking procedures before trading.
Climatology provides a baseline expectation for typical early-March highs and the range of normal variability, which can help benchmark how unusual a given outcome would be; however, short-term synoptic conditions often dominate the realized maximum on a specific day.
Settlement generally follows the final official value from the named reporting source as defined in the market rules; some exchanges allow for final verified reports or corrections up to a specified time, so check the event's settlement policy for how revisions are handled.