| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $126K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 96% | 94¢ | 96¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in New York City will be on March 7, 2026. It matters because the day’s peak temperature affects public health, transportation, energy demand, and outdoor events in the city.
Early March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., so temperatures can swing from wintry to unseasonably mild depending on storm tracks and large-scale atmospheric patterns. Year-to-year variability is driven by synoptic weather systems and seasonal teleconnections, while long-term climate warming has shifted the baseline upward, increasing the frequency of unusually warm March days.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations based on current forecasts, model guidance, and observed trends; they are a real-time summary of available information and will adjust as new meteorological data arrive.
The contract will settle to the temperature reported by the official observing source named in the exchange’s contract terms; check the event’s settlement clause on the platform to see the exact station and data source used for New York City.
Settlement follows the time window defined in the contract (typically the calendar day in local time), so consult the event description for the precise start and end times used to determine the daily maximum.
Model consensus and high-resolution guidance begin to have strong influence roughly 3–7 days out for temperature outlooks, with rapid adjustments in the final 48 hours as short-range models and observations refine the forecast.
Snow cover increases surface albedo and cools near-surface air, which can suppress daytime highs; conversely, little or no snow and exposed urban surfaces allow faster warming, so recent snowfall patterns are an important local modifier.
Yes—coastal storms can pull in either cold ocean air or warm maritime air, block solar heating with clouds, or change wind direction, all of which can materially alter the peak temperature observed during the day.