| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or below | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 38% | 39¢ | 46¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 64% | 59¢ | 60¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature outcome will be the highest recorded in New York City on March 6, 2026; it matters for traders, weather hedgers, and anyone tracking short-term temperature risk in the region.
March is a transitional month in NYC with a history of both late-winter cold snaps and early spring warmth, so single-day highs can vary widely year to year. Long-term climate warming has shifted the baseline toward warmer March values, but day-to-day synoptic setup still drives most variability. The market will settle to an official station observation as specified in the market rules.
Market odds reflect the aggregate views of traders combining climatology and evolving weather forecasts; they update as new model runs and observations come in and should be read as the market's current consensus, not a fixed prediction.
The market close time is set by the platform and shown on the market page; if it is listed as TBD, check the market page or platform notifications for updates because closing can be adjusted before settlement.
Settlement uses the official data source specified in the market's rules—typically an official NWS/NOAA observation from the designated NYC station (often the Central Park climate station); the exact station and dataset are listed in the market documentation.
The six outcomes correspond to the specific temperature bins or values listed on the market page; the outcome that matches the final official maximum temperature (per the market's settlement source and rules) will be the winning outcome.
Typically 'highest temperature' is the maximum air temperature recorded at the designated official station during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time), measured at the standard instrument height; any deviations or tie-break rules are described in the market's settlement terms.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model runs (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), frontal timing and strength, updated NWS forecasts and advisories, surface observations and trends, snow cover/ground conditions, and any shifts in model consensus or forecast confidence.