| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $36K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 90% | 90¢ | 91¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 8% | 9¢ | 13¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 40° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the highest observed in New York City on March 5, 2026; it matters because daily high temperatures affect energy demand, public health, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions. Market prices aggregate many participants' information about forecasts and observations for that specific date.
Early March in New York City is a transitional period with high variance from cold, snow-bearing systems to milder springlike days; historical daily highs for the date have ranged widely, and interannual variability is substantial. Longer-term warming trends shift the baseline slowly, but day-to-day weather is dominated by synoptic-scale features like Arctic outbreaks, nor'easters, or warm frontal passages.
Market odds reflect the collective, continuously updating expectations of traders about which of the six outcome bins will contain the highest observed temperature on Mar 5, 2026; higher prices indicate greater market consensus for that outcome relative to others. Use odds as a dynamic signal that incorporates new forecasts, observations, and participant information rather than a definitive forecast.
The market's order-book close is listed as TBD; the final outcome will be determined based on the official daily maximum temperature for the NYC reporting station for the local date of March 5, 2026, as published by the designated official observer (typically the National Weather Service/NOAA station).
Settlement will use the official observing network designated by the contract—commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA official station for New York City (Central Park or the contract-specified station); the market resolves to the station's recorded daily maximum for the local calendar date.
The market is structured into six mutually exclusive outcome bins that partition possible values of the highest temperature; once the official daily maximum is published for March 5, 2026, that single observed value will fall into one bin and that bin will be declared the winning outcome.
Historical March 5 temperatures show large year-to-year variability, so traders typically use recent climatology and analog dates to contextualize forecasts, but short-term synoptic forecasts for the week preceding Mar 5 usually dominate price moves for this specific event.
Monitor high-resolution and global model runs in the 5–10 day window, short-range ensembles and surface analyses in the 48–72 hours prior, satellite and radar trends, snow cover changes, and official NWS forecast updates for NYC, since those will materially change the expected daily maximum for March 5.