| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° to 51° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $78K | Trade → |
| 47° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $77K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $68K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 4, 2026; it matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather and for users hedging temperature-sensitive exposure.
The outcome depends on meteorological conditions over the NYC area on that specific calendar day; markets like this condense forecasts, observational updates, and local factors into tradable outcomes. There are six discrete outcomes in this market and trading activity (total volume reported) shows participants are actively pricing competing scenarios; the market close time is listed as TBD on the event page, and the event will settle to an official observed value per the contract rules.
Market prices summarize the collective expectation of participants and will move as forecasts and observations change; use them as a snapshot of market sentiment, not a guaranteed prediction, and always consult the event’s settlement rules to interpret the winning outcome.
Settlement is determined by the official observation specified in the market’s contract text — typically an official NWS/NOAA station or an agreed-upon city observation network — so check the event’s rules page to see which station and which reporting product (hourly max, daily max, or specific observing network) will be used.
The market will settle after the official observing agency publishes the daily maximum for March 4, 2026; exact settlement timing and any waiting period are specified in the event details, so review the contract for the settlement window and finalization policy.
Short-range model runs and high-resolution nowcasts (e.g., HRRR), visible/infrared satellite trends, surface observations from nearby stations, and updated synoptic forecasts about frontal timing or cloud cover are the primary information flows that traders will use to update positions for this date.
Coastal proximity, urban heat island effects, and microclimate differences across boroughs can influence where and when the daily high occurs; the contract’s specified observation site determines which of those local variations matters for settlement.
Traders typically monitor official agencies (NWS/NOAA), major forecast model output and ensembles, local National Weather Service forecast offices, private meteorological analysis services, and local media forecast updates — any of which can prompt rapid price adjustments on the event page.