| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in New York City on March 30, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related volatility or speculating on localized climate patterns.
New York City's late March climate is historically transitional, often caught between lingering winter air masses and the onset of spring warmth. Meteorological data for Central Park, the primary observation point, shows high variance during this period, influenced by Atlantic coastal currents and shifting jet stream patterns. Analyzing long-term trends and short-term atmospheric oscillations is critical to understanding the range of possible outcomes.
Market participants aggregate information from long-range weather forecasts and climatological models to price the likelihood of specific temperature ranges. Higher volume and tighter spreads typically reflect increased market confidence in the prevailing meteorological consensus.
The official daily maximum temperature recorded at the Central Park observation station by the National Weather Service.
It is the peak temperature reached between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM EST on March 30, 2026.
In the event of station failure, data from the nearest official NWS backup site or officially certified adjusted data will be used to resolve the contract.
Yes, the high temperature can occur at any time during the 24-hour window, though it is most frequently recorded during the afternoon.
Trading is available from the market launch until shortly before the date, at which point the market will freeze in anticipation of the official data release.