| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or below | 92% | 93¢ | 96¢ | — | $85K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $41K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 3, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning, risk management, and seeing how short‑range forecasts are reflected by traders.
Early March in the NYC region is a transitional period with strong day‑to‑day swings driven by shifting air masses and storm tracks. Broader climate trends have shifted baseline expectations for extremes, but the day‑to‑day outcome is still driven mainly by synoptic and mesoscale weather patterns and the exact timing of fronts or cloud cover.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations and update as new forecast data arrive; treat prices as a live consensus signal that complements meteorological forecasts rather than a definitive outcome.
The contract will specify the official observing station, agency (for example an NWS/NOAA station), units, rounding rules, and the time window used for the calendar date; consult the market's settlement specification to see the precise data source and protocol.
The market close is listed as TBD; settlement normally occurs after the official daily observations are available and per the exchange's published settlement timeline—check the platform for updates on close time and the typical latency between observation and settlement.
Synoptic‑scale features like the presence or absence of a warm air mass or frontal passage, cloud cover and solar heating, wind direction (onshore vs. offshore), and mesoscale effects such as a sea breeze or localized downslope warming will be the primary drivers.
Follow short‑range numerical guidance (0–72 h), ensemble spread for uncertainty, satellite/radar for cloud trends, and surface observations for real‑time verification; price movement typically responds to shifts in the expected timing of fronts, cloud cover, or wind direction.
Yes — the settled value reflects the measurement at the contract's specified station, so local microclimate and instrument siting at that station can influence the reported highest temperature; verify which station the market uses to understand those local effects.