| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 29, 2026; it matters because daily temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and public health. Market prices aggregate trader expectations about the weather on that specific date.
Late March is a transitional month in the northeastern United States, so temperatures can swing widely from seasonable chill to early warm spells depending on large-scale patterns. Long-term climate change trends raise the baseline for extremes and year-to-year variability, while short-term synoptic systems (fronts, ridges, troughs) typically determine day-to-day outcomes. The market outcome depends on the officially chosen observing station and the precise settlement rules set by the platform.
Market odds reflect the collective view of traders about which temperature outcome is most likely for that date and update as forecasts and observations change. They should be interpreted as real-time consensus signals, not immutable probabilities; check the contract rules and data source for exact settlement methodology.
The outcome is the maximum reported air temperature for the contract date as defined by the market rules—typically the highest official observation at the designated NYC reporting site during that calendar day, using standard meteorological instruments. Check the market's rule page to confirm the precise definition and units used.
The market contract specifies the data source and station used for settlement; markets for NYC temperatures commonly reference the official NOAA/central park climate station or another named site. Confirm the exact station and data provider on the event page before trading.
The market close time is listed as TBD, and settlement typically occurs after the official daily summary from the designated observing authority is published. The platform's contract rules will state the settlement timeline and any delays for data verification.
Key near-term drivers include the timing and strength of any approaching cold or warm fronts, persistence of cloud cover or sunshine on the day, changes in wind direction (e.g., onset of southerly flow), and any precipitation or snow that affects surface energy balance prior to the date.
Late March is climatologically variable, with both cool and warm episodes common; use historical variability to understand the range of plausible outcomes rather than expecting a narrow result. Combine that context with current numerical model forecasts and observational trends in the days leading up to Mar 29 for the most informed view.