| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market concerns the highest official air temperature recorded for New York City on March 28, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-interested participants because it aggregates real-time expectations about a weather outcome that affects energy demand, public comfort, and urban operations.
Late March is a transitional season in NYC with high day-to-day variability driven by the position of large-scale weather systems and intermittent cold fronts. Year-to-year trends in spring temperatures, urban heat island effects, and the timing of sun angle and clear-sky days all shape how warm a given March day can become.
Market odds here represent the collective expectations of participants about which outcome will contain the observed maximum temperature; they update as new forecast data and observations arrive. To interpret prices, treat them as a dynamic consensus signal rather than a fixed prediction.
The market's event rules specify the official observing station and time window; if the rules do not explicitly state them, platforms typically rely on a designated NOAA/NWS climate station for NYC and the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time). Check the market's event page for the authoritative source and timing.
Each outcome corresponds to a temperature category, threshold, or exact value as listed on the market page; the outcome that contains the officially observed maximum temperature for the specified station/time window is the one that settles as the winner.
The event currently lists the close time as TBD; the platform will announce the trading cutoff. Settlement occurs after the official temperature observation is published and the platform verifies the source, which can take hours to days depending on verification procedures.
Global models (ECMWF, GFS), regional high-resolution models and convective-allowing runs, ensemble forecasts for uncertainty, satellite/radar and surface obs for real-time conditions, and sounding data for boundary-layer expectations are the most influential inputs.
Late changes can shift the timing and magnitude of the daily maximum—clearing can boost afternoon heating, while a sea breeze or frontal passage can suppress late-afternoon peaks. The settled result is the officially recorded maximum regardless of when it occurs; traders should monitor real-time observations up until the market close.