| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in New York City will be on March 27, 2026; it matters because daily temperature extremes drive decisions in sectors like energy, transportation, and public health. Market prices aggregate participant expectations about weather conditions on that specific date.
Late March in New York City falls in a transitional season with high day-to-day variability driven by shifting storm tracks, late-season cold intrusions, or early spring warm-ups. Long-term trends such as the urban heat island and climate change have shifted baseline conditions over decades, but synoptic-scale weather systems and local effects typically determine the highest temperature on any particular date. Historical records for late March show wide year-to-year variation, so single-day outcomes are influenced more by short-term weather patterns than by long-term averages.
Prediction market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new weather forecasts, observations, and model runs become available; they should be read as a dynamic signal, not a fixed forecast. For settlement details and data sources, always consult the event's official rules on the market page.
Settlement is determined by the official data source and resolution rules specified on the event page; that will identify the observing station(s) or dataset and the measurement protocol used to decide the highest reported air temperature for that date.
The market's contract language will state the measurement window—many weather contracts use local-calendar-day definitions (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the designated observing location, but you must check the event rules to confirm the exact hours.
The event page should name the official observing station(s) or dataset; common authoritative sources for NYC temperature include National Weather Service/NOAA observations from official stations (e.g., Central Park, LaGuardia) or consolidated regional datasets, but always verify the specific source listed in the contract.
The market's resolution rules will describe tie-breaking, use of backup stations, or procedures if primary data is missing; typical approaches include using the next-best official dataset, interpolation from nearby stations, or following a predefined adjudication process.
The market operator or their designated resolver named in the event rules is responsible for applying the stated data source and procedures to determine the official settled value; check the event page for details on the resolver, evidence used, and any dispute process.