| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which listed outcome will correspond to the highest temperature recorded in New York City on March 25, 2026. It matters because temperature on a single date can affect energy demand, transportation, outdoor events, and short-term economic decisions.
Late March is a transitional period when NYC can experience large swings between unseasonably warm and chilly conditions due to shifts in large-scale weather patterns; long-term climate trends have raised baseline temperatures but day-to-day variability remains high. Historical same-day records and seasonal climatology provide context, and forecasts become more reliable as the target date approaches.
Market prices reflect collective expectations given available forecasts and observations and will change as new model runs or observations arrive; interpret them as a snapshot of market sentiment rather than a guarantee. Always consult the event's resolution rules to understand which observation source, rounding, and tie-break procedures will be used.
The event's resolution text specifies the exact official station and dataset to be used; check the event page for that citation. If you need clarification, review the market's resolution rules or contact the platform's support team.
The listing currently shows a close time as TBD; the platform will update the event page with a firm close time and resolution schedule. Markets typically close either shortly before the start of the observation date or at a specified resolution timestamp—verify the event page for the authoritative deadline.
The resolution rules on the event page define whether the metric is a 1-minute, hourly, or daily reported maximum and how values are rounded (e.g., nearest whole degree). Refer to those rules to understand the measurement interval and rounding conventions that will determine which outcome wins.
Major global models (operational deterministic runs and ensemble forecasts), regional high-resolution models, National Weather Service updates, and near-real-time surface observations and satellite data all influence expectations. Market participants also react to model convergence, storm timing shifts, and sudden observational trends from nearby stations.
The event's resolution rules should specify fallback procedures (such as using an alternate nearby official station, a specific dataset, or voiding the market). If the rules are silent, contact the platform for the official resolution policy; disputes are typically handled according to the market operator's documented dispute process.