| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in New York City on March 24, 2026 will be. It matters because day-to-day maximum temperatures affect energy demand, travel, outdoor events, and short-term economic activity in the city.
Late March is a transitional period in the Northeast where synoptic-scale patterns can produce large swings between unseasonable warmth and lingering cold. Recent years have shown increasing variability around seasonal averages, so both climatology and current weather patterns are relevant for expectations. The market aggregates participant views on which outcome will occur on that specific calendar date.
Market prices reflect the collective, real-time assessment of likely outcomes based on forecasts, observations, and participant information; they update as new model runs and observations become available. Use prices as a summary of market sentiment combined with independent weather data and official observations for settlement.
The measurement covers the local calendar day for March 24, 2026 (00:00 through 23:59 local time); confirm the contract page for the market's formal definition of the observation period.
The contract will specify the official data source used for settlement; many weather markets use National Weather Service/NOAA official station observations (commonly a designated Central Park or area ASOS/COOP station), so check the event's settlement rules to see the exact source.
Settlement fallback procedures are defined in the market's rules: typically the market uses an alternate official dataset, nearby station data, or a finalized NWS/NOAA product; consult the event's settlement language for the specified hierarchy.
Large-scale model trends and ensemble guidance begin to converge several days out, but the most reliable short-range detail for the daily maximum generally emerges within 24–72 hours; high-resolution and nowcasting products refine the forecast on the day of.
Review long-term climatology for late March, recent year-to-year variability on that date, and any local record highs/lows for March 24; combine climatology with recent weather trends and seasonal anomalies to inform expectations.