| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New York City on March 23, 2026 will be and matters for anyone hedging weather risk or tracking forecast performance for that date.
Late March is a transitional month with high day-to-day variability driven by the position of the jet stream and the passage of synoptic systems; both warm spells and late-season cold intrusions are possible. Where and how the temperature is measured (for example Central Park vs. airport stations) can change the reported value, so settlement definitions matter. Forecast models and live observations will narrow uncertainty as the date approaches.
Market prices summarize the trading community’s consensus expectations based on forecasts, observations, and risk preferences and will update as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat them as a continuously updating summary of belief, not as a guarantee of the observed outcome.
The market will settle to the observing station and time standard specified in its settlement rules; common choices are the official NOAA/ NWS station for Central Park or an airport ASOS station and local time (typically 00:00–23:59 local). Always check the event’s settlement specification for the authoritative source.
Closing time is listed as TBD on the event page; monitor the market for the announced close. Settlement typically occurs after the official daily maximum is published by the designated observing agency, subject to any data quality checks described in the rules.
Most weather markets use the official 2‑meter air temperature recorded by the designated station’s standard shelter or automated sensor; the event rules will state whether automated station (ASOS/AWOS) or a specific local climate station is used and how data corrections are handled.
Late‑March in NYC can range from wintry to springlike within and across years; consider the climatological variability for late March, recent seasonal trends, and any nearby historical precedents for early‑spring warm or cold events when forming expectations.
Participants typically monitor global and regional NWP models and their ensembles (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), short‑range mesoscale models, surface observations and METAR/ASOS reports, satellite and radar trends, and official NWS forecast updates; sudden shifts in model consensus or real‑time observations can rapidly change market prices.