| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded within New York City will be on March 22, 2026. It matters because peak temperatures on a given day influence energy use, transportation, health risk, and short-term economic exposures tied to weather.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by the position of the jet stream and passing fronts; both unseasonable warm spells and lingering cold air are possible. Long-term urban warming trends and local microclimates (e.g., Central Park vs. coastal airports) shape typical outcomes, but short-term synoptic weather systems usually determine the maximum on any single date.
Market odds on this event summarize traders' collective expectations about which temperature bracket will contain the day's maximum and update as forecasts and observations evolve. Treat market prices as a real-time signal of consensus, and always check the event's resolution rules to understand exactly how the reported temperature will be determined.
The event page currently lists the close as TBD; final determination will occur after the local calendar day ends on March 22, 2026 following the market's published resolution window. Check the Kalshi event page for the official close time and resolution schedule as they set the exact timestamps.
The market's resolution source on Kalshi will specify the official observation site. If the event does not explicitly name a station, markets covering NYC commonly rely on the NOAA/official climate station that represents the city (for example, Central Park) — confirm the designated station on the event page before trading.
The event's outcome descriptions define the exact bins and rounding rules; consult the market's outcome labels and resolution notes on Kalshi to see how continuous temperature measurements are converted into one of the six outcomes (for example, whether values are rounded to whole degrees and which endpoints are inclusive).
Resolution follows the event's specified source: if a single official station is named, the highest reading at that station during the local day is used; if multiple stations are specified, the published resolution rules will state whether the maximum across those sites is used and how ties or concurrent readings are handled. Review the event's resolution language for tie-breaker procedures.
Watch short-term numerical weather forecasts (timing of warm/cold fronts), satellite and radar for cloud trends and precipitation, forecast model agreement (GFS/ECMWF), and observations from the designated official station. Also consider recent local conditions like snow cover and soil moisture and any updates to the event's resolution rules on the Kalshi page.