| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This KALSHI market asks which temperature will be the highest observed in New York City on March 21, 2026. It matters to weather-sensitive planners, traders, and anyone tracking seasonal temperature extremes or short-term climate variability.
Late March in New York sits near the spring equinox and is climatologically variable: some years produce lingering winter conditions, others produce rapid warm-ups. Seasonal warming trends increase the likelihood of warm outliers, while day-to-day weather is dominated by synoptic-scale patterns such as the position of the jet stream and passing fronts.
Market prices reflect collective expectations for which outcome will be realized under the event’s settlement rules; consult the event page for the exact outcome labels and resolution criteria. Trades update as new forecast data and observations arrive in the days before the date in question.
The event resolves according to the specific observation source named in the market rules; check the KALSHI event page for the named station or official dataset. If the page does not specify, KALSHI’s resolution policy will identify the authoritative source used for settlement.
The market uses the calendar day at the official observing station’s local time (midnight to 11:59:59 PM on March 21, local Eastern Time). Confirm the station’s time standard in the event rules in case of any ambiguity.
Settlement follows the measurement and tie-breaking procedures specified in the event rules or the chosen official dataset; typically the highest recorded numeric value for the day is used and identical simultaneous readings still represent that same peak value, but consult the market’s resolution text for exact handling.
They correspond to the discrete temperature values or temperature ranges defined on the market page; each outcome label specifies the bin or exact temperature that will be considered the highest observed. Check the event page to see the exact labels and boundaries before trading.
Major drivers include a shift toward a prolonged warm ridge or an incoming cold front/low-pressure system, rapid increases or decreases in model ensemble members showing different thermal advection, and changes in expected cloud cover or precipitation that would alter daytime heating.