| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 20, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning and reflects short-term expectations about springtime warmth or cold. Market prices aggregate participant views and new meteorological information as the date approaches.
Late March sits near the climatological transition from winter to spring in NYC, a period with large day-to-day swings driven by passing fronts and coastal influences. Historical records show wide variability on March 20 from near-freezing to unusually warm readings, and long-term warming trends have raised baseline temperatures and the frequency of warm anomalies. Short-term outcomes will be strongly shaped by synoptic-scale patterns and the timing of any coastal or frontal passages around the date.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of traders about which temperature-range outcome will occur; they are a real-time signal of prevailing forecasts and risk appetite rather than a deterministic forecast. Use them alongside official forecasts and model output to understand consensus and uncertainty.
Settlement will use the specific official data source and observing station named in the contract’s settlement terms; typically this is an NWS/NOAA official station for NYC (check the event page or contract rules for the exact station and data product).
The contract’s settlement rules define whether the value is the official daily maximum temperature recorded on the local calendar date, the highest hourly observation, and the time zone used; consult the event’s settlement specification for the precise definition.
Settlement procedures in the contract specify contingency rules for missing or incomplete data, such as using nearby official stations or alternate validated datasets; those fallback rules are listed in the event’s terms.
Market prices tend to respond when deterministic model runs and ensemble consensus converge on a specific synoptic solution (usually several days out) and to sharp short-term revisions when high-resolution forecasts or observations indicate a front or storm timing, especially in the 48–72 hour window before the date.
Look at a range of past March 20 values and recent March climatology to see typical variability and extremes; pay attention to years with late-season warm ridges or cold outbreaks and to the recent upward shift in baseline temperatures driven by long-term warming.