| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32° to 33° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $36K | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 27° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in New York City on March 2, 2026 will be, letting traders express views on a single-day weather outcome. It matters because single‑day temperatures affect energy demand, travel, and event planning and are a common short‑term weather contract.
March weather in New York City is highly variable: late‑winter cold snaps and early spring warm spells are both possible, so single‑day highs can move a lot as the synoptic pattern evolves. Market prices will typically respond to model ensemble updates, observed trends, and official forecasts from agencies such as the National Weather Service.
Odds in this market reflect the aggregated expectations of traders given current information and forecasts; they should be read as a real‑time signal that can change as new model runs and observations arrive. Use them alongside meteorological updates rather than as definitive predictions.
The market close time is listed as TBD; watch the KALSHI market page for the official close timestamp and any updates.
This market offers six outcomes; each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature outcome or range as defined on the market's outcome labels—see the market page for exact wording.
The market's resolution rules on KALSHI specify the official data source and station (for example, an NWS station or consolidated dataset); check that section to see which station or dataset will be used for final determination.
The applicable observation window and time zone are defined in the market's resolution rules—commonly the local calendar day or the official NWS daily period—so verify the market page for the precise window.
Track model run updates and ensemble spreads (ECMWF/GFS and ensembles), surface observations (temperatures and snow cover), frontal timing and storm development, and official NWS forecast changes; each can materially shift expectations as the date approaches.