| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 19, 2026, and matters to weather-sensitive planners, utilities, and traders tracking near-term meteorology. Outcomes translate a meteorological observation into a contract that will settle against an official temperature report.
March is a highly variable month in New York City: some years feature late-season cold and snow while others see springlike warmth, so single-day highs can differ substantially from climatological averages. The market has six discrete outcomes corresponding to temperature bands; the contract will settle to the authoritative observing source and measurement standard specified in the market rules.
Market odds express the collective expectation about which temperature band will contain the day's maximum; use them as a snapshot of market sentiment while referring to official forecasts and the contract's settlement rules for definitive information.
The market will settle to the data provider and station named in the contract; for NYC temperature contracts this is commonly an official National Weather Service/NOAA observation such as the Central Park station, measured and reported using standard surface air-temperature procedures—check the contract text for the exact site and standard.
The posted close time for trading is indicated on the market page (currently TBD); settlement normally occurs after the designated data provider publishes the daily maximum temperature for the observation date, and the contract rules specify the official publication or verification timing.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature band or threshold listed on the market outcome labels; the winning outcome is the band that contains the highest reported air temperature for the date at the named observing site—consult the outcome labels on the market page for exact cutoffs.
Yes—snow cover and wet ground increase cooling and can reduce daytime maximums, while radiational cooling after clear nights can influence morning lows; these surface and recent-weather conditions are important drivers of the observed daily maximum.
Short-range numerical model guidance (e.g., HRRR, NAM, high-resolution ensembles), National Weather Service forecasts and discussions, current METAR/ASOS observations for NYC, satellite/radar for cloud cover and precipitation, and mesoscale analyses of fronts and temperature advection are all useful inputs for anticipating the day’s maximum.