| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest in New York City on March 18, 2026, a question that matters for local operations, energy demand, and situational awareness for weather-sensitive activities.
March in New York City sits near the seasonal transition, so daily maximums can vary widely from late-winter conditions to early-spring warmth depending on large-scale weather patterns. Longer-term climate trends have increased variability in shoulder-season temperatures, making single-day outcomes more sensitive to synoptic setup and short-term anomalies.
Market prices aggregate participant assessments and update as new forecasts and observations arrive; use them as a real-time signal of collective expectations rather than a guaranteed prediction.
Settlement will occur after the official highest temperature for March 18, 2026 is established for the market’s designated observation station (the official NOAA/NWS reporting site for NYC); the market follows the specified data source and settlement rules, including any allowed post-event adjustments.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature bins that partition the plausible range of highest daily temperatures for NYC on that date; only the bin containing the official observed maximum will be declared the winning outcome.
It is the highest air temperature recorded at the designated official observation station during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time), as reported by the official data provider named in the market rules.
If the official data source revises its record, settlement follows the market’s stated policy regarding official corrections; check the market’s terms for the exact dispute and revision procedures.
Watch updated numerical weather model runs (especially 24–72 hour guidance), NWS forecast and any watches/advisories, recent surface observations at the designated station and surrounding sites, snow-cover analyses, and upper-air soundings that indicate incoming air-mass characteristics.