| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 17, 2026. It matters for participants tracking short-term weather risk, energy demand, and early‑spring climate variability.
Mid‑March in New York City is a transitional period with frequent swings between cool and warm conditions, so outcomes can be strongly influenced by the timing of passing fronts and synoptic-scale patterns. Official daily maximum temperatures are recorded at designated meteorological stations and can differ from nearby locations because of urban heat island effects and microclimates.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about the measured daily maximum at the contract's specified observation site; they will move as forecasts and observations change. For settlement, consult the market contract for the exact data source, station, and measurement window used to determine the official result.
The market uses the official daily maximum air temperature as recorded at the observation site and time window specified in the contract (typically the local calendar day, 00:00–23:59 local time). Measurements follow the observing agency's standard protocols; check the contract for exact definitions.
The contract page lists the official data source and station used for settlement (for New York City markets this is commonly a NOAA/NWS reporting station such as Central Park or a designated airport site). Always verify the settlement source on the market page before trading.
Closing time is listed as TBD on the market page; check for updates. Final settlement normally occurs after the end of the local calendar day on March 17, once the official daily summary from the designated source is available and verified, which can take additional time.
As the date nears, numerical weather model runs, satellite/radar updates, and surface observations refine expectations about frontal timing, cloud cover, and precipitation, which in turn shift which outcome is most plausible; intraday changes can be rapid during transitional seasons.
Review climatological ranges and recent year‑to‑year variability for mid‑March in New York City, plus any notable historical early‑spring warm spells or cold snaps. Consider local reporting station records and recent seasonal trends that could bias expectations one way or the other.