| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature outcome will be the highest recorded in New York City on March 16, 2026; it matters because daily-maximum temperatures affect energy demand, public health planning, and short-term economic activity in the city.
March temperatures in New York City are seasonally variable, with outcomes on a single date driven primarily by transient weather systems (cold fronts, warm advection) and local factors such as urban heat island effects. Weather markets like this combine real-time forecasts, observations, and participant expectations to produce a single market view of that date's highest temperature.
Market odds summarize the crowd's current assessment of which outcome is most likely and will change as new model runs, observations, and news arrive; interpret odds as a dynamic consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast.
Resolution typically uses the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) for the specified reporting station; consult the event's resolution rules on KALSHI to confirm the precise time window.
The contract's resolution rules specify the authoritative data source (for example, a named NWS/NOAA observation site or airport station); check the event details on KALSHI to see which station and dataset will be used.
Each outcome represents a predefined temperature range or bucket; once the official maximum for Mar 16, 2026 is determined from the specified data source, the single outcome whose range contains that value will be the winner.
Resolution typically follows publication of the official daily summary by the named data provider and any contractual quality-control period; check the event page for the market's stated resolution timing and any dispute procedures.
New deterministic and ensemble model runs, shifts in frontal timing, updated short-term observations (surface and upper-air), and any local developments (snow cover changes, unexpected cloudiness) tend to move expectations and therefore market prices.