| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 15, 2026. It matters because temperature extremes on a specific date affect energy demand, public health planning, transportation, and local weather-sensitive businesses.
March 15 falls in a seasonal transition period when the Northeast can experience late-winter cold or early-spring warmth depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Recent decades show more variability in shoulder-season temperatures, but this specific event focuses on a single calendar day rather than long-term trends.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about which temperature range will be observed on that date; they are shorthand for collective judgment rather than guarantees. For exact settlement rules and the measurement source, consult the contract description on the market page.
The market will use an official weather observation defined in the contract rules; typically this is the National Weather Service's designated station for New York City and a specified 24-hour local calendar day. Check the market's contract page for the exact station and time window that will be used for settlement.
Outcomes are arranged as mutually exclusive temperature categories (bins) covering the possible range for that calendar date. The market contract page lists the exact cutoffs for each of the six outcomes and how final settlement will be determined.
Finalization timing and procedures for post-event corrections are specified in the contract terms on the market page; many weather contracts allow a window for official data corrections and state how amended observations affect settlement.
Monitor large-scale model runs for frontal passages, the position of the jet stream, temperature advection patterns (cold vs. warm air masses), cloud cover forecasts, and surface wind direction — each can materially change the expected daytime maximum.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation for what is typical on March 15, but year-to-year variability is large in spring. Traders use recent model guidance, synoptic forecasts, and short-term observations in combination with climatology to form expectations for this specific date.