| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market resolves to the highest temperature recorded in New York City on March 14, 2026; it matters because day-to-day temperature outcomes drive weather-sensitive decisions in energy, transit and public safety and provide a measurable short-term test of forecasts.
March 14 falls in early spring, a season with large day-to-day variability for NYC as shifting air masses, coastal influences, and late-season storms can produce either unseasonably warm days or lingering cold. Climate trends have increased the frequency of warm anomalies over decades, but individual-day outcomes remain strongly controlled by synoptic-scale weather patterns and local effects.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about the range in which the official daily maximum temperature will fall; they move as forecasts, observations, and risk preferences change, but the final settlement is determined by the contract's specified official data source, not by market prices.
The market's close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); the official highest temperature is taken from the contract's specified data source for Mar 14, 2026 and is posted for settlement after that source publishes the final daily maximum and the exchange completes its verification process—check the market rules for exact settlement timing.
The contract defines the official reporting station or dataset used to determine the highest temperature (this is shown on the event/contract page); common choices include an official NWS station such as Central Park or an official NOAA dataset—if the market page does not clearly state it, contact the exchange for the designated source before trading.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range listed in the contract; the settlement rules on the event page specify how exact-boundary values are handled (for example, inclusive/exclusive endpoints or rounding conventions), so consult those rules to see which outcome wins in a boundary case.
As new model runs, observations, and short-range forecasts arrive, traders revise expectations and market prices adjust accordingly; after the market closes, prices no longer update and final settlement relies solely on the official observed maximum for Mar 14, 2026.
The contract and exchange rules include fallback and dispute procedures—these may specify alternate stations or datasets, acceptance of official corrections, and timelines for finalizing settlement; review the market's settlement and dispute policies for the exact process that will apply.