| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 13, 2026. It matters because daily maximum temperature is a succinct, observable climate metric that influences energy demand, public health planning, and short-term economic activity in the city.
March is a transition month for New York City weather, with outcomes driven by the position of the jet stream, late-season cold fronts, or early warm spells. Historical seasonal variability means a single March date can see anything from near-winter cold to unseasonably warm conditions, so forecasts can shift rapidly in the days before the date. The market reflects traders’ expectations based on model guidance, observations, and emerging synoptic patterns.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants about which temperature range will be observed; they move as new model forecasts, observations, or synoptic developments arrive. Use the prices as a real-time signal of how likely outcomes appear given current information, not as fixed predictions.
The contract will specify the official data source and measurement conventions used to determine the winning outcome; commonly this is the highest 2-meter air temperature reported by the specified NOAA/NWS observation station or ASOS/METAR record within the defined local calendar day. Always check the market’s resolution rules to confirm the exact definition.
Resolution follows the platform’s stated source. If the event page names an official station or dataset (for example, a particular NOAA station), that single source determines the outcome; if the page is silent, the platform’s market rules will state the fallback source and tie-breaking procedures.
Most weather contracts use the local calendar day (midnight to midnight local time) at the specified observation site, but exact timing is set by the contract’s resolution rules. Confirm the time window on the event page or in the platform’s documentation.
Resolution typically occurs after the official data are published by the designated source; that can be within hours of the day ending or take longer if quality control is required. The platform will publish the resolution and the data source it used once the official measurements are available.
Forecast model runs, observed temperature trends, and synoptic evolution in the 1–3 days prior can produce the largest price movement because they materially change the expected air mass and cloud/precipitation conditions that set the daily high. Traders typically pay close attention to the 48–72 hour model guidance window.